Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a drop to $73,518 on Tuesday, inching closer to its lowest price since August 21. The leading cryptocurrency showed a brief recovery above the $74,000 mark but ultimately remained under pressure following the release of U.S. inflation data that exceeded expectations.
The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed a 0.4% increase from September, surpassing the predicted 0.3%. Core CPI also rose by 0.3%, against an anticipated 0.2%. Notably, this report did not provide a year-on-year figure due to the data collection halt during the 2025 government shutdown. Nevertheless, the monthly growth rate did cool compared to September’s 0.6% rise.
Contributing to the inflation concerns, energy prices climbed by 0.7% in October, following a substantial 5.2% increase in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that shelter costs rose by 0.3%, while food prices increased by 0.5%.
Changing Odds for Fed Rate Hikes
Economist Robin Brooks described the inflation report’s details as “discouraging,” asserting that October marked the peak of a second oil price shock this year. In light of the data, Fed governor Christopher Waller expressed his support for a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in December. Prior to the inflation report, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicated a 96.3% probability of such a hike, which fell to 85.3% after the report’s release. Meanwhile, the odds of a 50-basis-point increase rose to 14.7%.
The U.S. stock market also reacted negatively, with the Nasdaq Composite opening down by 0.6% before recovering slightly. Notably, Nvidia’s stock fell nearly 4%. Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company reported that the equity put/call ratio rose above 1.0, indicating potential long-term stability for the Nasdaq.
Technical Analysis: Support Levels Under Scrutiny
Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s support levels, particularly the 200-day moving average situated around $73,200. Lewis Huang from Bitget warned that a sustained move below this level could heighten the risk of a more significant pullback. Fellow analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin is currently at a crucial juncture where several key higher-timeframe levels converge, including the Bull Market Support Band, the daily 200MA/EMA, and the yearly VWAP. He emphasized that maintaining above $72,000 is essential, with daily and weekly closes being particularly significant.
Trader Heisenberg shared insights on social media, indicating three notable support confluences at the current price point and encouraging bulls to consider buying. Matt Mena from 21Shares noted that $73,000 coincides with Bitcoin’s pre-election 2024 all-time high and April 2025 lows. Should Bitcoin break below this level, it could potentially fall to $69,000, which aligns with the 2021 cycle high.
Mena also highlighted the importance of the 50-week moving average as a support indicator. A breach here could pressure Ethereum’s $2,000 level, with $1,800 as a subsequent watch point. If Bitcoin successfully holds the $73,000 support, there are prospects for a retest of $78,000, with an ambitious target of $85,000 by year-end. Historically, November has averaged a 34.4% return for Bitcoin since 2010, with a median gain of 8.6%.
In the broader market context, Ethereum declined by 3.7% to $2,042, while Solana dropped more than 4%, trading below $83. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was priced at $73,363, reflecting a 1.6% decrease.
