SpaceX (SPCX) stock closed at $141.50, up around 0.5%, following a bold revenue forecast from CEO Elon Musk that has captured Wall Street’s attention.
Musk recently shared on X that SpaceX could achieve an astounding $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033, a timeline that significantly outpaces Morgan Stanley’s updated forecast of 2040. This seven-year difference has set the stage for a lively debate among analysts and investors alike.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained an Overweight rating on SpaceX, indicating that the company remains attractively valued. The bank’s current price target is set at $137 per share, just shy of SpaceX’s latest closing price.
The mathematics behind Musk’s forecast is ambitious. In Q2, SpaceX reported a revenue of $7.81 billion, marking a remarkable 92% year-over-year increase. This positions the company’s annualized run rate at about $31 billion. To reach Musk’s $3.5 trillion target by 2033, SpaceX would need to grow its revenue roughly 112 times, translating to an approximate 96% compound annual growth rate over the next seven years.
In terms of revenue sources, connectivity led the charge in Q2, contributing $4.29 billion, followed closely by AI at $2.56 billion, and the space business at $962 million.
However, the road to these ambitious targets requires substantial investment. SpaceX reported capital expenditures of $18.37 billion in Q2 alone, underscoring the level of cash being deployed to build the necessary infrastructure for Musk’s lofty goals.
Louisiana Spaceport: A Game Changer
This week, SpaceX unveiled plans for Starbase Louisiana, a new $100 billion spaceport located in South Louisiana. Construction is expected to commence in 2027, with the first Starship launch targeted for 2029. Morgan Stanley anticipates that this facility will support polar and sun-synchronous launches, enhancing SpaceX’s extensive launch network.
The bank’s model predicts that SpaceX will ultimately operate 15 launch pads, with three more expected to be operational by the end of 2027. If the company manages two launches per pad per day, this could equate to around 5,800 Starship launches annually by 2040.
Investing in AI and Orbital Computing
SpaceX is also making significant strides in AI infrastructure, planning to scale its computing capacity from over 2 GW by the end of 2026 to approximately 10 GW by 2027. Morgan Stanley estimates that each additional 1 GW of orbital computing could add around $27 per share to SpaceX’s valuation, a metric investors should monitor as the company expands this segment of its business.
Musk has previously suggested that SpaceX could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, with 2029 as a possibility in a more aggressive growth scenario. Morgan Stanley’s earlier projections placed SpaceX’s valuation at approximately $330 billion by 2030, eventually climbing to $3.4 trillion by 2040.
As SPCX stock continues to perform, closing at $141.50, above Morgan Stanley’s price target, investors are left pondering whether Musk’s ambitious revenue projections will come to fruition or remain a distant dream.
