Ethereum is showing signs of recovery as it builds a stronger price structure ahead of its major FUSAKA upgrade set for December 3. With exchange reserves falling and technical indicators turning bullish, the market is preparing for a potential rally. As Ethereum trades near $2,990, analysts are now watching key resistance levels, forecasting a possible climb to $4,200 by year-end if buyers maintain control and momentum continues building.
Ethereum Price Builds Strength as Technical Setup Improves
Ethereum is regaining stability after trading under downward pressure for several weeks. The price currently sits near $2,990, with buyers defending key levels and printing steadier daily candles. The market is showing higher lows around $2,772, which confirms an early structural shift.
Chart analysis points toward $3,058 as a crucial level. Ethereum failed to hold this zone during earlier attempts, but a clean reclaim could allow the price to reach $3,618. This area previously triggered strong reactions, and a break above it could create a clear path to $4,200 before the year ends.
Momentum indicators are also aligning with this potential. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has shown a bullish crossover, lifting from its lower zone. This indicates improving momentum and supports the current setup.
December Upgrade Boosts Market Expectations
Ethereum is preparing for its next network upgrade, FUSAKA, set for December 3. Historical data from the May 2025 Pectra upgrade shows ETH gained 55% in 35 days and 168% in 109 days during that period.
Analysts expect similar patterns following the December upgrade. Forecasts suggest that Ethereum could hit $4,500 within 35 days of the FUSAKA rollout. While this projection extends slightly beyond 2025, it aligns closely with the $4,200 target discussed by technical traders.
The market is watching this development closely, as prior upgrades have often influenced price movements. Ethereum’s ability to reclaim resistance zones post-upgrade will be key to this outlook.
Capital Outflows and Whale Movements Affect Sentiment
Ethereum has faced selling pressure throughout Q4, with ETF data reflecting this trend. In November, outflows from Ethereum ETFs totaled $1.42 billion. This amount is more than triple the outflows recorded in March 2025, which stood at $403 million.
Whale activity also adds to the outflow narrative. One early ETH holder has sold 87,824 ETH worth $270 million across several transactions. Despite the selling, over $200 million remains in Ethereum, suggesting a long-term belief in its value.
The sell-off weighed on short-term sentiment, though Ethereum still posted a 10% gain over the past week. On the hourly chart, ETH holds above a trendline that began in late November. If this support breaks, a 5–6% correction may follow.
Falling Exchange Reserves Add Support to ETH Outlook
Data from CryptoQuant shows a 2.11% drop in Ethereum’s exchange reserves. Lower reserves usually indicate reduced selling interest as fewer tokens remain on exchanges.
This decline comes at a time when Ethereum is approaching critical resistance levels. The thinning supply could support stronger reactions if ETH retests $3,058 and then pushes toward $3,618. Lower supply often improves the chances of a stable price breakout when demand increases.
With fewer ETH tokens on exchanges and a tightening chart structure, the current environment may support a move toward $4,200 by the end of 2025.
